Michigan Exports Lagging

By Martin Lavelle

The Michigan economy has surged since the end of the Great Recession (in 2009). Until recently, rising exports had been part of this story. However, Michigan’s exports abroad have fallen off significantly of late even as its economy continues to grow.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Michigan and Relative Michigan Economic Indexes, Michigan’s economy grew at a rate faster than its long-run trend and at a higher rate relative to that of the U.S. since 2010./1 Moreover, during the past five years, Michigan has added 334,700 nonfarm payroll jobs and its unemployment rate has fallen from 13.8% to 5.6% as of March, 2015./2

Much of this improvement can be attributed to rising Michigan exports since the end of the recession. Using data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s TradeStats Express,/3 then deflating it with the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysi,/4 I generated the two charts below. They both show that Michigan’s real exports of goods fell sharply in 2009 because of the Great Recession before rebounding strongly in 2010. Like Michigan’s exports, U.S. real exports of goods rebounded sharply in 2010 and grew each year afterward, albeit at slower rates relative to those of the state. But this pattern persisted only through 2013: Michigan’s real exports of goods fell 6.2% in 2014, while U.S. real exports of goods grew 1.4% that year.

Chart 1: Michigan Real Exports of Goods, 1999–2014
Chart 1
Source: Author’s calculations using data from tse.export.gov.

Chart 2: Real Exports of Goods, U.S. & Michigan, 1999=100
chart 2 20150519
Source: Author’s calculations using data from tse.export.gov.

While pullbacks in Michigan’s real exports occurred in multiple sectors in 2014, the largest one was seen for transportation equipment. The chart below shows the change in real exports in 2014 relative to 2013 for the top five categories of goods by share of Michigan real exports. From that chart, one can calculate that transportation equipment accounted for just under half of Michigan’s real exports in both years. Michigan’s transportation equipment exports decreased $3.2 billion from 2013 to 2014; this drop made up the bulk of Michigan’s $3.4 billion decline in total real exports. Meanwhile, automotive exports from the rest of the U.S. did not experience such a decline over the same period.

Chart 3: Michigan Real Exports of Goods, Selected Sectors, 2014 vs. 2013
chart 3 20150519
Source: Author’s calculations using data from tse.export.gov.

Outlook for 2015

Michigan’s exports may rebound in 2015 given the somewhat more buoyant outlook for the global economy. According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest global forecast, the world economy is expected to grow 3.5% this year, with more growth expected among advanced economies. Of Michigan’s five largest trading partners, all expect to see positive economic growth in 2015, with three anticipating accelerations in economic activity. However, the strengthening U.S. dollar may slow export growth, especially since the U.S. dollar has significantly appreciated against the Japanese yen and the euro. But if Michigan’s transportation exports continue to decrease, another question would have to be considered: What is the story behind transportation equipment exports from Michigan relative to those from the rest of the U.S.?

/1 See https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/others/research/data/mei/mei-data-series-xlsx.xlsx. [NOTE: The essential URL does not need “?la=en.”] A zero value for the index indicates that the Michigan economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth. A zero value for the Relative MEI indicates that the Michigan economy is growing at a rate historically consistent with the growth of the national economy; positive values indicate above-average relative growth; and negative values indicate below-average relative growth.

/2 Author’s calculations using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov).

/3 Trade data are provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division. All state export statistics are drawn from the Origin of Movement (OM) series compiled by the Foreign Trade Division of the U.S. Census Bureau. The series credits export merchandise to the state where the goods began their final journey to the port (or other point) of exit from the United States, as specified on official U.S. export declarations filed by shippers. The OM can be either the location of the factory where the export item was produced or, in many cases, the location of a distributor, warehouse, or cargo processing facility. For further details, see http://tse.export.gov/TSE/HELP_TSE/helpTSE.htm and http://tse.export.gov/TSE/TSEhome.aspx.

/4 See www.stlouisfed.org/publications/re/articles/?id=2390

Health Care in America with Nancy Schlichting

By Paul Traub

U.S. consumers are reported to be spending an ever increasing amount of their personal income on health care each year. According to Personal Consumption Expenditures data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), consumers spent close to $2.0 trillion on health care in the United States in 2014. Based on this, spending in 2014 on health care was equal to 11.5% of total gross domestic product (GDP). The Affordable Care Act (ACA, P.L. 111-148) together with the Health Care and Education Act of 2010 (P.L. 111-152) expanded access to health care coverage for millions of Americans who were without health insurance. The ACA (also known as Obama Care) has been the center of much debate and has been cited by some as a major impediment to job creation since it requires employers with more than 50 full-time employees to provide health care insurance for their workers. Between 1980 and 2010, the compound growth rate in inflation-adjusted health care spending equaled just 4.9%./1 As Chart 1 below illustrates, in the four years since then per capita spending on health care has increased by about 10%. But should all of the concern about health care be just focused on cost or are there other issues just as important that should be discussed? In an effort to get a better understanding of the issues surrounding health care and the ACA, the Detroit Association of Business Economists (D.A.B.E.) presented a program on the state of health care in the U.S. with guest speaker Nancy Schlichting, CEO of Henry Ford Health Systems. Henry Ford Health Systems is a nationally recognized $4.0 billion health care organization with 23,000 employees.

Chart 1

Schlichting opened her presentation by pointing out that health care is one of those services about which everyone has an opinion and that opinion is often based on personal experience. While the experiences that form a person’s opinion can at times be positive, more times than not they are likely to negative. Witnessing a sick parent or family member go through a difficult time is often the experience that people remember. Schlichting highlighted three important features of health care.

First, health care matters most when you need it. Schlichting went on to explain that the perceived need for health care is much different for someone who is healthy than for someone who has experienced a debilitating illness. When people are young and haven’t experienced many medical difficulties, they often believe they are immune to illness. Older individuals, who are more likely to have seen someone else go through a medical problem, more easily recognize their own frailties. This leads people to recognize a need for insurance against the unknown. The same need to be prepared for anything is felt more strongly by someone who is the head of a family or a household more than by someone who has no dependents.

Second, a person who has never been uninsured doesn’t understand what it is like to live without health insurance. It is not widely recognized that many individuals that don’t have insurance do work, often multiple part-time jobs. Schlichting said more than 50% of the people not covered under a health care plan do work and many of them are young people.

Third, the American health care system is the most complex in the world. Consumers often don’t understand how their coverage works and what is covered and what isn’t. This complexity also adds cost to the system. It is estimated that $0.25 of every dollar spent on health care in the United States goes to cover administration costs. This complexity has also led to the need for more administrative staff than care givers in some institutions. The confusing process is also one of the reasons that uncompensated care is still rising. Consumers find it difficult to navigate through the complexity of the system of co-pays and deductibles, Schlichting argued, and often choose to ignore a bill that they believe is the responsibility of the insurance company.

Schlichting said, in her view, the passage of the ACA will be a positive for the industry in the long run. Hospitals and health care providers have been working to improve services and lower costs and are doing so by concentrating on some specific areas. Schlichting said the largest opportunities for improvements are related to the incentives the ACA provides to improve the quality of health care procedures. For example, the act imposes penalties on hospitals for readmitting patients. This is forcing providers to do a better job in caring for their patients and making sure they are ready to be released. Another way to help eliminate frequent trips to the hospital is to provide patients with the ability to share information with their care giver either by phone or email. Schlichting’s company is also trying to improve quality by studying other models of success and adopting reliable quality systems, such as the Six Sigma process, The Deming Institutes quality management principles, and Baldrige performance programs. These processes are helping to lower costs while improving the patient’s experience, which is an important aspect of success in the highly competitive health care industry.

What does the future hold? The health care industry will continue to change, Schlichting said, as providers work to reduce cost and improve care. The consolidation of hospitals, physician practices, and insurance companies will most likely continue as part of the industry’s overall efforts to cut costs. The marketing of health care services is also likely to become more important, she pointed out, as providers recognize the need to market to individuals who are opting out of group coverage and shopping for their own coverage on health care exchanges.

1/ Current dollar BEA PCE health care spending was adjusted for inflation using PCE chain-type index.