Michigan’s Populated Regions Driving the State’s Unemployment Rate Lower

By Martin Lavelle

Michigan’s unemployment rate fell in 2017 to 4.6% for the eighth consecutive year since peaking at 13.7%(1) in 2009. The drop from the peak–over 9 percentage points—is the largest recorded in any state during that time. The state’s labor market has arguably strengthened each year of its economic recovery from the Great Recession. And the size of the labor force and labor force participation rate have trended higher since 2013, after falling in each of the eight years prior to 2013.

In this blog, I look at Michigan’s household employment by county. See map and table for details of Michigan’s counties and regions(2).
Map: Michigan Counties by Region

Source: Map created with mapchart.net

Table: Counties and their Michigan Region

The chart shows unemployment rates by region in Michigan.
Chart: Unemployment Rate by Michigan Region, 1990-2017

Source: Author’s calculations using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Analysis

Looking at the chart, we can see that Michigan unemployment rates end up in the same order at the beginning (1990) and end points (2017), respectively, with some variation. Not surprisingly, the state unemployment rate tracks the unemployment rate of the most populated region, Southeast Michigan, over the period. Also, every region’s unemployment rate has failed to hit its previous low that came during the last cyclical peak in 1999-2000. But where does the tight labor market that is currently occurring in Michigan originate?

The stronger, tighter labor market in Michigan has resulted primarily from improvements in the state’s most populated regions: Southeast Michigan and Western Michigan. Southeast Michigan includes Detroit and Ann Arbor; Western Michigan includes Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo. Southeast and Western Michigan comprise almost 70% of the state’s total labor force. This has remained consistent going back to 1990. From 2009 through 2017, Southeast Michigan’s unemployment rate fell almost 10 percentage points, while Western Michigan’s unemployment rate fell almost 8 percentage points.

Michigan’s recent labor force rebound can be largely attributed to Southeast Michigan. Southeast Michigan’s labor force peaked in 2000 and started on a downward trend that finally reversed itself in 2016, though it remains at levels seen during the early 1990s. Before 2016, the increase in Michigan’s labor force came from the Western and Mid-Michigan regions, respectively.

While other regions in Michigan have seen their labor markets improve at a similar pace as Southeast and Western Michigan, the overall strength of their labor markets doesn’t match up in some areas. Mid-Michigan, the region that includes the state capital, Lansing, has seen its unemployment rate stall at 4.6% in the past two years. Immediately northeast of Mid-Michigan, the Flint/Tri-Cities Region (Bay City, Midland, Saginaw) has also seen the drop in its unemployment rate pause and it has done so at a higher rate than in the other higher populated regions in Lower Michigan. In addition, labor force levels in the Flint/Tri-Cities Region have continued to trend downward.

However, the starkest difference in unemployment rates is that between the predominantly rural regions of Michigan and their urban counterparts. Even though Northern Michigan’s unemployment rate fell more than 8 percentage points from its peak, it ticked up to 6.5% in 2017, almost 2 percentage points above the state-wide unemployment rate. Meanwhile, the Upper Peninsula saw the lowest drop in its unemployment rate relative to the other regions, falling almost 6 percentage points to 6.5% in 2017. While labor force levels in Northern Michigan have ticked up in the past couple of years, they have fallen below 1990 levels in the Upper Peninsula.

Michigan’s regional labor force participation rates provide additional context for the relative changes in regional labor market strength. The table below compares labor force participation rates in different years since the turn of the century.

Table: Labor Force Participation Rates by Michigan Region: 2000, 2010, and 2017

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Given that Michigan has one of the older state populations(3), it’s no surprise that the state’s labor force participation rate has fallen since 2000. However, Michigan’s post-2009 economic rebound helped stabilize the state’s labor force participation rate. Regionally, this has occurred in the state’s two most populous regions: Southeast and Western Michigan. However, the northern regions have continued to see drops in their respective labor force participation rates, even though the civilian labor force populations have slightly increased in Northern Michigan and stayed flat in the Upper Peninsula.

County private payroll employment data corroborate the household survey data in showing which Michigan regions have been relatively stronger or weaker than the others since 2001. The table below compares changes in employment levels by region in the major private employment sectors(4) between 2001 and 2017.
Table: Changes in Employment by Michigan Region and Major Private Employment Sector, 2001-2017

Source: Author’s calculations using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Comparing 2017 employment levels by sector with 2001 levels (the earliest data available) shows that the Flint/Tri-Cities region has the largest percentage drop for six of the sectors. Some of the percentage changes in each sector by county are astounding. Genesee County, where Flint is located, lost 56.5% of its 2001 manufacturing employment. In the same region, Bay and St. Clair counties each lost more than 40% of their respective construction base. In contrast, the Western Michigan region has the greatest percentage change in seven of the ten sectors, six of which have higher levels than 2001. As remarkably negative as some of the county-wide data in the Flint/Tri-Cities region are, the opposite is true in the Western Michigan region. Kent County, where Grand Rapids is located, experienced a 74% increase in its Education & Health Services sector and a 60% increase in its Professional & Business Services sector. Allegan County, situated in between Kent and Kalamazoo Counties, saw an 85% increase in its Professional & Business Services sector. St. Joseph County’s Education & Health Services sector almost doubled in employment. Van Buren County, which is on Lake Michigan, saw its Professional & Business Sector increase in employment 71%.

Conclusion

The large drop in Michigan’s unemployment rate mainly came from the significant decreases in the unemployment rates of its two most populated regions: Southeast and Western Michigan. Michigan’s unemployment rate has fallen for eight straight years and hasn’t been lower since the late-1990s. In addition, the state’s labor force level has rebounded, and the labor force participation rate has held steady against aging demographics. Naturally, there is cause for concern in the regions where labor force levels have continued to contract, especially where labor force participation rates have fallen despite slight to modest rises in the civilian labor force population, signs that those labor markets may have weakened structurally.

(1)All unemployment rates are annual averages of not seasonally adjusted data.
(2)Placing of counties into regions based on author’s analysis
(3)https://www.statista.com/statistics/208048/median-age-of-population-in-the-usa-by-state/
(4)Major private employment sectors: Natural Resources/Mining, Construction, Manufacturing, Trade/Transportation/Utilities, Information, Financial Activities, Professional & Business Services, Education & Health Services, Leisure & Hospitality, Other Services

A Look into Changes in Home Prices in Detroit and Wayne County, Michigan, Between 1991 and 2016

By Martin Lavelle and Dan McMillen

Since the early 1990s, the housing market in Wayne County, Michigan, whose county seat is Detroit, has experienced substantial price swings. Housing market volatility has varied by municipality (and by neighborhood within Detroit). Changes in the Wayne County housing market show us which areas have thrived and which have struggled in the past quarter century or so. In this blog post, we take a look at how home prices across the county have changed between 1991 and 2016, with a focus on changes in the Detroit housing market.

Analysis of maps

We used a nonparametric procedure to estimate hedonic price indexes for each census tract (or neighborhood in Detroit) for five-year intervals throughout the overall sample period between 1991 and 2016.(1) The nonparametric procedure uses the census tract (or Detroit neighborhood) centroids as target points, and then just uses weighted least squares with more weight on sales near the target points.

Before going over each of our five maps individually, we want to highlight a few aspects common to all of them. The numbered and colored axis on the right of each map shows the five-year percentage change in home sale prices. Broadly speaking, red areas indicate relatively hotter housing markets (within Wayne County), while blue areas indicate relatively cooler housing markets. The darker a shade of red an area is, the relatively more positive (or less negative) the change in home sale prices; the darker a shade of blue an area is, the relatively less positive (or more negative) the change in home sale prices.

Each map covers all of Wayne County. Wayne County’s boundaries are the Detroit River to the east; 8 Mile Road to the north; Napier Road and Rawsonville Road to the southwest; and Oakville-Waltz Road, Will Carleton Road, and the Huron River to the south. The Grosse Pointe communities begin in the northeastern corner of Wayne County. In each map, the city of Detroit’s borders appear as thick black lines. Going west from Detroit’s city center, one would encounter Redford Township, Livonia, and Plymouth. Going southwest from Detroit’s city center, one would travel through Dearborn, Metro Airport, Wayne, Belleville, and Canton Township. South of Detroit lie Allen Park, plus the Downriver communities that include Lincoln Park, Trenton, and Woodhaven.

The two smaller areas demarcated with thick black lines within Detroit’s borders are Highland Park and Hamtramck; both cities were outside of Detroit when they were originally founded, and they decided to remain incorporated after Detroit expanded further northward in the first quarter of the twentieth century.(2) The white areas just outside of Southwest Detroit are Ford’s corporate headquarters and its Rouge River plant and associated industrial areas.

Map 1. Home price changes in Wayne County, Michigan, 1991 to 1996
Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from CoreLogic Real Estate.

In the first half of the 1990s, much of Wayne County saw increases in home sale prices. Notably, there isn’t much variance in home sale price changes in map 1. There were areas both inside and outside Detroit that experienced the greatest relative increases in home sale prices. Within the city, Midtown and northwest Detroit saw the largest positive changes in home sale prices. Outside of Detroit, the exurban areas of Plymouth and Canton Township experienced the greatest positive changes. With the exception of Dearborn, which on the map appears to be poking Detroit’s southwest border, Detroit’s first ring of suburbs experienced increases in home sale prices that were at the lower end of the spectrum of gains.

The results in map 1 are in line with Detroit’s economic narrative at the time. Detroit enjoyed an economic boom in the first half of the 1990s (following the brief national recession of 1990–91). One factor that specifically helped Detroit back then was low oil prices, which boosted sales of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) made by the Detroit Three automakers (Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors). Higher profits at the Detroit auto manufacturers had a positive ripple effect on the local and regional economies. Another factor helping the Detroit area was stable public finances. An often overlooked achievement of the 1990s was the fact that Mayor Coleman Young’s administration balanced Detroit’s budget before his tenure ended in the mid-1990s.

Map 2. Home price changes in Wayne County, Michigan, 1996 to 2001
Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from CoreLogic Real Estate.

During the latter half of the 1990s and the beginning of the twenty-first century, Wayne County continued to see widespread increases in home sale prices, though with slightly greater variance than in first half of the 1990s. Large home sale price increases were found throughout Detroit. During the late ‘90s, government payrolls were expanded, adding to Detroit residents’ disposable incomes. An increase in local government jobs, combined with the surging automotive industry and general economy, led to a sharp decrease in unemployment in Detroit: The city’s unemployment rate averaged 6.6% in 2000, a significant drop from the 1990 average of 15.0%.(3) Meanwhile, Detroit’s first ring of suburbs witnessed a slight pickup in growth in home sale prices. However, Wayne County’s exurban areas saw a modest deceleration in their rate of growth in home sale prices. Overall, the Wayne County housing market was strong throughout the 1990s.

Significant changes were made to how state and local revenues would be collected and used between 1996 and 2001. Dennis Archer replaced Coleman Young as the mayor of Detroit (in 1994) and added to city payrolls, which raised the disposable income of the city at the cost of unbalancing Detroit’s budget. Also, Proposal A, Michigan’s large school-reform bill,(4) flushed Detroit Public Schools with additional cash, adding to the district’s appeal. And state revenue sharing hadn’t been cut yet, giving city government additional resources for services. A lot of economic and fiscal factors worked in Detroit’s favor during the 1990s, most likely making positive impacts on the city’s housing market. However, the next decade would reveal the mistakes of increasing government spending as Detroit’s population (i.e., its tax base) continued to shrink.

Map 3. Home price changes in Wayne County, Michigan, 2001 to 2006
Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from CoreLogic Real Estate.

Home sale price appreciation endured through 2006 across Wayne County, though with slightly greater variance compared with the appreciation seen in the previous five-year interval. Again, the largest relative gains in home sale prices were in Detroit. Gains in home sale prices flattened in the first ring of suburbs, whereas some exurban areas saw a slight pickup in growth. From looking at map 3, one might conclude that the Detroit and Wayne County economies had stayed the course and built on the 1990s expansion. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case. After the turn of the millennium, the subprime housing crisis began. During the early 2000s, Detroit didn’t see the massive boom in homebuilding or the surge in home values seen in places such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tampa, and southern California. That said, Detroit home values remained elevated as a result of the U.S. housing bubble.

After falling to a low of 3.7% in 2000, Michigan’s unemployment rate rose to 7.2% in 2003.(5) The state’s unemployment rate bounced around that rate until it began to rise again with the beginning of the U.S. Great Recession in December 2007. Many analysts have contended Michigan’s economy fell into recession sometime late in 2003, as the boom in SUV sales receded with the rising price of fuel. Then, beginning in 2005, layoffs and voluntary buyouts of long-tenured employees of the Detroit Three automakers began, helping to slow economic activity further. Simultaneously, Detroit’s economic momentum was halted. Detroit residents were already weighed down by high city income tax rates, and revenues from its local casino wagering taxes began to wane. Moreover, the city’s unemployment rate rose quickly after hitting its 2000 low; it reached 14.1% in 2004, and lingered there until late 2007.(6)

Map 4. Home price changes in Wayne County, Michigan, 2006 to 2011
Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from CoreLogic Real Estate.

After experiencing widespread home sale price increases between 1991 and 2006, home sales price decreases permeated throughout much of Wayne County between 2006 and 2011. Of all the Wayne County municipalities, Detroit suffered the most from the popping of the housing bubble. Even areas of the city that one might assume would be more stable than others (for instance, Midtown Detroit) suffered sizable home sale price decreases. The further out one went from the city, the lesser the decline in home sale prices. However, almost no area was spared. One can almost divide the map into auto-industry-dependent, blue-collar areas and relatively more diversified, white-collar areas (the blue areas were the former, the red areas the latter). Another thing to keep in mind is that outmigration accelerated during this time. Economic misfortunes, early retirements, and the aging of the population persuaded many to leave and seek residence elsewhere.

Map 5. Home price changes in Wayne County, Michigan, 2011 to 2016
Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from CoreLogic Real Estate.

The year 2011 marked a turning point for Wayne County’s economy. In that year, Dan Gilbert moved the headquarters of Quicken Loans downtown and started incentivizing his employees to live there as well. Also in 2011, Gilbert began buying downtown real estate. Now, Gilbert owns over 90 buildings downtown. The year 2011 was also when Mayor Dave Bing announced his intention to supply additional funding to certain stable neighborhoods of Detroit that were deemed “demonstration areas.”(7) The Detroit neighborhood of Boston–Edison (one of the demonstration areas) shows up in map 5 as a lighter red area (indicating it had modest home price increases). Bagley (another demonstration area) is one of the lighter blue Detroit neighborhoods (indicating a slight rebound in home values there).

In map 5, Detroit’s Downtown, Midtown, and Corktown, plus their surrounding areas, show signs of life. As we mentioned, Dan Gilbert was the catalyst for downtown investment. And it turns out that Midtown Detroit, Inc., was the catalyst for Midtown investment. In 2011, Midtown Detroit, Inc., Detroit Medical Center, Wayne State, and Henry Ford Health Systems announced the start of the Live Midtown program, which provided monetary incentives for people to move to Midtown.(8) This program helped increase the rental occupancy rate in Midtown Detroit to nearly 100% in 2014.(9) And high occupancy rates have endured in Midtown even with the additional living capacity built over the past few years.(10) In Corktown, the owners of Slows BBQ helped draw new investment to other vacant Michigan Avenue storefronts, improving the neighborhood’s attractiveness.

Conclusion

During the late 1990s and early 2000s, home sale prices rose much more rapidly in (already relatively low-priced) Detroit neighborhoods than in many other parts of Wayne County (see map 2). However, these same Detroit neighborhoods were the areas where home prices fell more significantly as Michigan endured its one-state recession from around 2003 through 2009 and as the U.S. housing bubble burst in 2006 (see map 4).

Map 5 (which describes the five-year home price changes between 2011 and 2016) almost perfectly demonstrates the argument that there are now “two Detroits,” as public and private investments to date have helped only some parts of Detroit to revitalize and raise their home values. The areas in red are where the bulk of Detroit’s revitalization is taking place, while the areas in blue are the neighborhoods still waiting to participate in the city’s rebound. At this point, the blue areas in Detroit are vastly outnumbered by the red ones. But many public sector and private sector efforts are under way to improve the city’s living conditions, which may lead to higher home prices (and, in turn, higher tax receipts and perhaps expansions of city services to draw more people). So, in the coming years, Detroit may start to see its red neighborhoods outnumbering its blue ones.

(1) Nonparametric regressions are used when the relationship between the independent and dependent variables aren’t already known. The regression analysis from the data provided determines the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. A hedonic price index identifies price factors (the characteristics of the good itself and the external factors affecting its sale). (For more on census tracts, see https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/webatlas/tracts.html.) Details on our procedure are available upon request.
(2) For details, see https://wdet.org/posts/2014/09/19/80119-why-do-hamtramck-and-highland-park-exist-inside-the-city-of-detroit/.
(3) Author’s calculations based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
(4) See http://www.mlive.com/education/index.ssf/2014/04/a_brief_history_of_proposal_a.html.
(5) Author’s calculations using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
(6) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
(7) See http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20110727/FREE/110729908/detroit-works-project-to-be-measured-in-three-demonstration-areas.
(8) See https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2015/11/01/midtown-incentives-boost-diversity/74014992/.
(9) See http://www.mlive.com/business/detroit/index.ssf/2014/04/with_shortage_of_housing_optio.html.
(10) See https://detroit.curbed.com/2018/2/20/17031664/report-apartments-downtown-highest-average-rent-detroit and https://www.freep.com/story/money/business/2017/02/18/detroit-apartments-real-estate/97640058/.

Potential Seventh District Contenders for Amazon’s HQ2

By Martin Lavelle

In September 2017, Amazon announced its search for a second North American headquarters location. Ultimately, 238 North American metropolitan areas submitted bids within the six-week allotted period, including several in the Seventh District (1). In this blog, I examine the potential Seventh District contenders based on some important criteria relating to logistics, business environment, and labor force.

Amazon’s request for proposals laid out its location preferences:
• Metropolitan areas with more than 1 million people
• A stable and business-friendly environment
• Urban or suburban locations with the potential to attract and retain strong technical talent
• Communities that think big and creatively when considering locations and real estate options

In the Seventh District, the metropolitan areas with a population of greater than 1 million are Chicago, Detroit (2), Grand Rapids, MI, Indianapolis, and Milwaukee.

Logistics

The table below shows that each of the Seventh District’s metropolitan areas with more than 1 million residents fulfills most or all of Amazon’s other logistical preferences, though to varying extents.

Table 1: Seventh District MSAs and Amazon’s Logistical Requirements (3).

Chicago possesses the flexibility for Amazon to locate anywhere in its metro area because of the various modes of mass transit available to Chicagoland commuters. Milwaukee’s bus rapid transit lines offer some flexibility as well as to potential HQ2 locations. Chicago and Detroit provide an adequate number of air connections to Amazon’s most important North American metropolitan areas. In addition, O’Hare and Detroit Metro Airports are large enough to potentially adjust operations and increase connections.
Logistics also include freeway networks and the ability of employees to navigate freeways. The work/life balance is disrupted the longer one spends stuck in traffic. The table below shows how the Seventh District metropolitan areas with more than 1 million people rank relative to other major North American metropolitan areas with regard to how many hours one
spends in congested traffic annually.

Table 2: Select North American Metro Areas by Traffic Congestion (4)

While it may not seem like it, especially during road construction season, Seventh District metropolitan areas rank favorably on congestion, relative to population size. What Detroit and Indianapolis lack in mass transit, they compensate for with the number of freeway connections. However, according to the 2015 American Community Survey (ACS), Chicago and Detroit have higher drive and total commute times than the national average in each category. Per the ACS, the percentage of Chicago commuters that utilize some mode of mass transit is slightly above 10%, similar to that of Seattle.

Business Environment

Amazon’s second location requirements include a stable and business-friendly environment. States with more business-friendly tax climates tend to use their corporate tax structure as an incentive to attract new business. The table below shows how Seventh District states rank in the 2017 Overall and Corporate Business Tax Climate Index.

Table 3: Ranking of Select U.S. States in the 2018 Overall and Corporate Business Tax Climate Index (5)

Source: https://statetaxindex.org.

The overall rankings of the Seventh District states compare favorably relative to some states with sites that are considered top contenders for Amazon HQ2 such as Minneapolis, MN and Washington D.C., which are included in the above and remaining tables. Indiana and Michigan rate in the top half, helped by the fact they have the lowest flat individual income and corporate income tax rates among the Seventh District states (6). Illinois fell out of the top half in the most recent annual update to the rankings. Meanwhile, Michigan has moved into the top 10 overall.

Theoretically, business activity levels should increase if the state is relatively friendlier to business. One could surmise that a greater number of businesses would place their corporate headquarters in a state that ranks as more accommodating to business. The chart below plots a state’s corporate tax climate ranking versus the number of Fortune 500 companies headquartered in that particular state.

Chart 1: Corporate Business Tax Climate Index Ranking vs. Actual and Predicted Fortune 500 Headquarters

Sources: https://www.ceo.com/entrepreneurial_ceo/two-charts-showing-states-with-the-most-fortune-500-companies and https://statetaxindex.org.

As shown by the green trend line on the chart, there’s actually a slight positive relationship between a state’s corporate tax climate index ranking and the number of Fortune 500 companies headquartered there. The lower the state is ranked, the greater the number of corporate headquarters located in that particular state. That’s the opposite of what one would expect, which is the red dotted line on the chart above.

So if a state’s overall business tax climate doesn’t impact where a corporation will locate its head offices, what variable does influence those decisions? Another example of a state with a business-friendly environment is one that offers incentives to help influence companies’ location decisions. The table below displays how the Seventh District states with eligible metropolitan areas compare with others in that dimension.

Table 4: Annual Business Incentives Per Employee

Source: Moody’s Analytics

By this measure, Michigan ranks highly relative to sites in states that many analysts think have major contenders to land Amazon’s HQ2 such as Austin, TX; Philadelphia, PA; Boston, MA; Portland, OR; Denver, CO; Atlanta, GA, San Francisco, CA; Raleigh, NC; and Salt Lake City, UT. Michigan is noticeably more generous with incentives than other Seventh District states. A major reason companies seek incentives is to offset tax liabilities. The Upjohn Institute created a database with national tax and incentive data, as well as state tax and incentive data for 33 states across 45 industries over the past 26 years. From the database, one can determine the magnitude of a state’s tax liability and incentive for a given industry as a percentage of that industry’s economic value-added. Then, by taking the incentive percentage (of its value-added) for a given state and dividing that by its tax percentage (of its value-added), one can determine to what extent a state’s incentives offset an industry’s tax liabilities in that specific state. The table below compares state tax liabilities and incentive offerings as a percentage of their respective value-added, along with the percentage of state tax liabilities covered by incentive offerings for some of the Amazon HQ2 contenders and the U.S. overall.

Table 5: Incentives and Taxes by U.S. and Select State, 2015 (7).

Source: Tables 10, 13, and 15 of http://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1228&context=reports.

Except for Illinois, the Seventh District states rank favorably relative to other states when looking at incentives as a percentage of state’s value-added and as a percentage of a state’s gross taxes. Having a greater percentage of its gross tax liabilities offset by incentive offerings would likely make a state more attractive to a business. Another takeaway from the table is that it doesn’t follow the previous table that showed incentives per job. Texas may have the highest incentive per job, but its incentive offerings constitute a relatively low percentage of its value-added. Conversely, Indiana possesses a relatively low incentive amount per job, but incentives offset almost 60% of its gross taxes. Lastly, Washington stands out for being a relatively high tax, low incentive state that lags significantly behind the other contending states.

Talent

Amazon has stated that it “will hire as many as 50,000 new full-time employees with an average annual total compensation exceeding $100,000 over the next 10-15 years, following the commencement of operations.” (8) In order to fill that many positions, Amazon will need to attract and retain highly skilled workers. That requires access to a college-educated population, including a substantial number with degrees in science, technology, engineering, or math (STEM) fields. The table below compares the Seventh District candidate metropolitan areas with other contenders on the relative education level of the adult population, as well as the percentage with a science or engineering background.

Table 6: College-educated Population in Select U.S. Metropolitan Areas

Source: 2016 American Community Survey, Seventh District locations are highlighted.

Among the group above, the Seventh District metropolitan areas don’t match up well. The Michigan metros don’t rank well when looking at the percentage of the population that possesses a bachelor’s degree. Grand Rapids ranks last when looking at the percentage of population with an advanced degree. Some of the areas known for their ability to retain and attract talent stand out in the table above. Washington D.C., San Francisco-Oakland, Raleigh, and Boston have world-class universities and globally renowned employers that require and need the best and the brightest.

Of course, not all STEM fields require a bachelor’s degree. Certain occupations in manufacturing and information technology only require a two-year degrees or specific certification. The table below shows the Seventh District candidate cities’ STEM employment relative the same group of U.S. cities listed in the previous table.

Table 7: Percentage of Employees in STEM (9) Occupations; Seventh District and Select U.S. Metropolitan Areas

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics database, available at www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm. Seventh District locations are highlighted.

By this broader measure, the Seventh District metropolitan areas compare more favorably with their peers. Detroit, Indianapolis, and Milwaukee have higher percentages of employees in STEM occupations than the U.S. average. Of the group of metro areas listed above, Detroit ranks behind just five of them.

An important factor in attracting talent is a relatively low cost of living. The next table examines the gross median rent in the Seventh District metro areas and select U.S. metros. Also, the table lists the gross median rent as a percentage of median household income in each metro area.

Table 10: Median Rent and its Percentage of Median Household Income

Source: Author’s Calculations Using Data from the 2016 American Community Survey. Seventh District locations are highlighted.

While there’s a noticeable disparity in the monthly rents among the metro areas, the range considerably tightens when looking at the percentage of household income that is devoted to rent. Detroit has one of the lowest monthly rents, but it comprises a relatively high percentage of household income because of Detroit’s relatively low median household income. Meanwhile, the Washington D.C. metro area, known for its relatively high housing costs, has a median rent almost twice that of Detroit, but it comprises a lower percentage of the metro’s median household income because the metro area has a higher median household income. Among the Seventh District metro areas, rents in Grand Rapids make up the lowest percentage of household income.

Potential Amazon Sites in the Seventh District Cities

Do you have an eight million square foot piece of land to spare in your metro area? That’s what Amazon is asking for their HQ2 site. Amazon requires an initial space of 500,000 square feet that can expand to as large as eight million square feet in order to accommodate the number of employees they plan to have working at their HQ2. Where would Amazon place their HQ2 in each of the Seventh District’s large metro areas? Potential Seventh District contenders have suggested particular sites that could accommodate Amazon’s HQ2.

Chicago

Chicago proposed ten sites that could accommodate Amazon’s new headquarters. They were revealed to the public and can be viewed here. A couple of the sites stand out for different reasons. The Downtown Gateway District site, which includes the old Post Office building, contains move-in-ready buildings, but would also allow Amazon to design its own headquarters. Outside of Downtown, the River District site would also give Amazon some autonomy in designing its headquarters without having to undertake the kind of massive redevelopment effort that some of the other proposed sites would require.

Detroit

The executive summary of Detroit’s Amazon proposal offers few surprises. Dan Gilbert, Chairman and Founder of Rock Ventures and Quicken Loans, was appointed to lead Detroit’s bid for Amazon, which includes Windsor, Ontario, Canada, just across the Detroit River. Gilbert owns 95 Downtown Detroit buildings, giving Downtown Detroit flexibility to move things around if it were to be chosen by Amazon. One potential complex is the now open space that was supposed to have Wayne County’s new jail, and then was bought by Gilbert with much talk surrounding a soccer stadium. With the old jail site on one end and Gilbert’s proposed skyscraper on the old Hudson’s department store site on the other, this location could be attractive. Of course, Detroit doesn’t have a shortage of vacant space that Amazon could build to use. However, Detroit doesn’t have the extensive mass transit system that would allow relatively easy access to some of the larger vacant sites.

Grand Rapids

Grand Rapids hasn’t given any clues publicly as to where it has proposed Amazon would locate within the area. However, the relatively small size of the metro area means it only takes 15-20 minutes to drive from any corner of Greater Grand Rapids into downtown. The metro area includes plenty of space around Holland, only a 35 minute drive from Downtown Grand Rapids, and Grand Valley State University in between.

Indianapolis

Indianapolis didn’t make their Amazon bid public either. Indianapolis may arguably have the most shovel-ready location that would not just fulfill Amazon’s initial 500,000 square foot requirement, but go a long way toward hitting the eight million square foot target. The site used to have a General Motors stamping plant, which it was demolished in 2013. It is located in Downtown Indianapolis on the White River, just across from the central business district and IUPUI, and has relatively easy access to the city’s freeway system. The old GM site has been talked about publicly by city stakeholders. (10) As with Detroit, in Indianapolis, a less extensive mass transit system limits where Amazon could go.

Milwaukee

Milwaukee’s bidding group didn’t reveal its Amazon bid publicly. However, according to the local press, two sites in Walkers Point were included.(11) Walkers Point lies immediately south of Milwaukee’s central business district, contains old industrial sites, and provides access to freeways and Milwaukee’s bus rapid transit system. In addition, one would expect potential locations to be identified in the vicinity of Milwaukee’s airport, which is south of the central business district.

Conclusion

If Amazon were to choose a Seventh District location for HQ2, where would it be? Looking at all of the variables, the most likely Seventh District metro area to attract Amazon would seem to be Chicago. However, if Amazon wanted to transform a community, then Detroit or Milwaukee might be more appealing. If Amazon preferred the most shovel-ready site, then Indianapolis could merit greater consideration. Grand Rapids could emerge as a candidate if Amazon were to place greater weight on its ability to work with local stakeholders, as well as having their employees enjoy a relatively low cost of living. Amazon plans to make an announcement sometime in 2018. (12)

Foot Notes

1 – The Seventh Federal Reserve District serves a five-state region, comprising all of Iowa and most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin.
2 – Although Detroit submitted a joint regional bid with Windsor, Ontario, Canada, the statistics I cite here are for the Detroit MSA.
3 – See Information on Airport Hub Size Type from the FAA, number of Direct Flights from October 24, 2017 using the By Route tab at http://www.panynj.gov/airports/flight-status.html?view=DEPARTURE&apt=EWR. Airport data includes all commercial metropolitan airports, i.e., New York consists of Kennedy, La Guardia, and Newark airports. Seventh District locations are highlighted.
4 – Population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Traffic data from inrix.com/scorecard. Seventh District locations are highlighted.
5 – The overall ranking of the State Business Tax Climate Index is derived from five components: state income tax, sales tax, corporate tax, property tax, and unemployment insurance tax. The corporate tax has the third heaviest weight of the five components at 19%. The corporate tax subindex is divided into three of its own subindexes. The first subindex revolves around the structure of a state’s corporate tax rate, its level, and how many brackets and how quickly does a corporation’s tax liability reach the highest bracket. The second subindex examines variables related to the corporate tax base, such as the caps and number of years allowed for carryback and carryforward, gross receipts tax deductions, and whether or not the state has an alternative minimum tax. The final subindex studies the size and effectiveness of tax credits. Seventh District locations are highlighted.
6 – See p. 59 and p. 64 of https://files.taxfoundation.org/20171016171625/SBTCI_2018.pdf.
7 – Table reports present value of incentives, gross state and local business taxes, and net business taxes after incentives, all calculated as percent of present value of value-added. All incentive and taxes are weighted average, using value-added weights, across all 31 export-base industries, for a new facility starting up in 2015. Table also reports the state’s share of private value-added, which is used to create national averages across these states. Incentives as a percent of gross taxes are simply ratio of the two other columns. All present value calculations use 12 percent real discount rate, and consider facility with life of 20 years. The U.S. incentive percentage is weighted by a state’s gross state product. Seventh District locations are highlighted.
8 – See p. 2 of https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/G/01/Anything/test/images/usa/RFP_3._V516043504_.pdf.
9 – The criteria to define STEM- and non-STEM-related occupations were taken from the U.S. Census Bureau. See www.census.gov/people/io/files/STEM-Census-2010-occ-code-list.xls.
10 – See https://www.indystar.com/story/money/2017/09/28/if-amazon-chooses-indianapolis-heres-where-h-2-q-should-go/685599001/.
11 – See http://www.tmj4.com/news/local-news/making-a-pitch-possible-locations-for-amazons-hq2-site.
12 – See p.1 of https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/G/01/Anything/test/images/usa/RFP_3._V516043504_.pdf.

The Detroit Association of Business Economists Talks Wine

By Paul Traub

At the final event of its 2016–17 events calendar, the Detroit Association of Business Economists (D.A.B.E.) hosted three presentations on what it takes to own and operate a vineyard (where grapes are grown) or winery (where grapes are processed into wine) in Michigan. The event took place on May 11, 2017, at the Detroit Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. While it may sound romantic to live on a vineyard, the attendees of this event learned that growing grapes and operating a winery is a tremendous amount of work. Thomas Smith, associate director of the Institute of Agricultural Technology, moderated a panel of three speakers—Karel Bush, executive director, Michigan Grape and Wine Industry Council, Dave Youngblood, owner and operator of Youngblood Vineyards, and Cristin Hosmer, VESTA and the Michigan Wine Collaborative.

Vineyards and wineries represent a growing part of Michigan’s economy. Michigan’s terroir or natural environment for producing wine features favorable factors such as good soil and topography together with a growing climate that gives its wine a unique taste. There are three main types of grapes grown in Michigan—classic European varieties called vinifera, native varieties including Concord and Niagara, and hybrids, which are a botanical cross between vinifera and native varieties. Because of Michigan’s harsh winters, most of its grapes grow within 25 miles of Lake Michigan, where the moderating “lake effect” protects the vines. The lake effect produces snow in the winter, protecting vines from early spring frosts that can damage the grape buds and lower production. In addition, the warmer air off the lakes in the early fall helps protect against freezing, thereby extending the growing season by up to four weeks. According to the Michigan Grape and Wine Council, Michigan has 13,700 acres of vineyards, making it the fourth largest grape-growing state in the country. While most of Michigan’s vineyard acreage grows juice grapes, about 2,850 acres are devoted to wine grapes, making Michigan the fifth largest wine-grape producer in the nation. Michigan grows about 20 types of wine grapes, but the top five account for almost 65% of total production by acreage. They are: riesling (27.9%), pinot noir (10.2%), chardonnay (9.6%), pinot gris (9.6%), and cabernet franc (7.1%).

Michigan’s vineyard area has more than doubled over the past ten years and the state now has 131 commercial wineries bottling more than 2.4 million gallons of wine annually. In fact, Michigan’s wine production has increased by 34% over the past five years, making it tenth state in the nation in wine production. Growth in wine production is expected to continue, with new hybrids allowing for production in areas of the state that were not previously hospitable to wine grapes. An added bonus for Michigan’s economy is that wineries are popular tourist destinations, attracting more than two million visitors annually. The wine industry directly contributes $300 million annually to Michigan’s economy, and the combined wine, grape, and juice products and related industries add nearly $790 million in total economic value to the State of Michigan. To learn more and to review the complete presentations, click on the links below.

The History and Economics of Michigan’s Wine Industry, Karel Bush, Michigan Grape and Wine Industry Council

Economics of a Vineyard, Dave Youngblood, Youngblood Vineyards

The Economics of a Winery, Cristin Hosmer, VESTA and the Michigan Wine Collaborative

U.S and Michigan Economy Webinar

By: Paul Traub

On Tuesday, February 28, I hosted a 30-minute webcast on the current state of the U.S. and Michigan economies. This blog provides a summary of the webcast.

A year-over-year comparison of some main economic indicators for the U.S. economy (table 1) shows that the U.S. economy continued to expand in 2016 at a moderate pace and labor markets continued to improve, but inflation remained below the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2% longer-run objective.

Table 1: U.S. Main Economic Indictors

Indicator    2014    2015    2016
Gross Domestic Product 1 2.4% 2.6% 1.6%
Unemployment Rate 2 6.2% 5.3% 4.9%
Participation Rate 2 62.9% 62.7% 62.8%
Nonfarm Job Growth 3 2,558 2,876 2,493
PCE Core Inflation 4 1.6% 1.4% 1.7%
  1. Year-over-year
  2. Annual Average
  3. Annual Average Employment – Y/Y Change in thousands
  4. Annual Average PCE Core Inflation – Percent Change Y/Y

 Consumer spending (personal consumption growth in chart 1) made the largest contribution to U.S. economic growth in 2016. Improved labor conditions and growing personal income facilitated U.S. consumers’ ability to purchase U.S. goods and services. Consumers contributed 1.8% to total GDP growth of 1.6% for the year. Total GDP growth ended up lower because of negative contributions from gross private domestic investment and net exports. While domestic residential investment added 0.2%, offsets from nonresidential (-0.1%) and inventory investment (-0.4%) pushed the total sector’s contribution into negative territory (-0.3%). In addition, a stronger trade-weighted U.S. dollar made U.S. goods and service more expensive overseas, helping to increase the trade deficit by $21.7 billion in 2016 on a year-over-year basis, its highest annual level since 2008. Government investment and consumption added just 0.15% to GDP for 2016, most of which came from state and local governments (0.11%).

The data from Michigan (through Q3) suggest that Michigan’s economy may have increased at a faster rate the nation’s in 2016 (table 2.). Stronger growth is supported by the increased growth in Michigan’s employment in 2016 versus 2015, while the nation recorded a decline in labor growth. Michigan’s demand for labor also increased. . While the civilian participation in the labor force for the nation grew by just 0.1%, Michigan experienced a 1.0% increase in its labor force participation rate in 2016. This helped Michigan’s nonfarm labor force grow by 2.1%, versus 1.8% for the national nonfarm labor force. This is significant because output can increase in one of two ways: increased productivity or increased labor. The stronger growth in labor helps to explain why Michigan’s economy may prove to have grown faster than that of the nation in 2016 once all the data are made available later this year.

Table 2: Michigan Main Economic Indictors

Indicator 2014 2015 2016
Gross State Product 1 1.9% 1.6% 2.1%
Unemployment Rate 2 7.1% 5.4% 4.7%
Participation Rate 2 60.5% 60.3% 61.3%
Nonfarm Job Growth 3 78.1 63.2 90.6
CPI – All Items 4 1.0% -1.3% 1.7%
  1. Year-over-year
  2. Annual Average
  3. Annual Average Employment – Y/Y Change in thousands
  4. Annual Average – Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint, MI (CMSA)

 One of the biggest drivers behind Michigan’s improving employment and economic performance has been the recovery in light vehicles sales, which has set new records for the past two consecutive years, coming in at 17.4 and 17.5 million units for 2015 and 2016, respectively. Almost 20% of Michigan’s GSP currently comes from manufacturing, not counting engineering and technical support, and almost half of Michigan’s manufacturing is in the motor vehicle and parts industry.

One of the biggest drivers behind Michigan’s improving employment and economic performance has been the recovery in light vehicles sales, which has set new records for the past two consecutive years, coming in at 17.4 and 17.5 million units for 2015 and 2016, respectively. Almost 20% of Michigan’s GSP currently comes from manufacturing, not counting engineering and technical support, and almost half of Michigan’s manufacturing is in the motor vehicle and parts industry.

For more information on the U.S. and Michigan economies and to see the complete presentation, go to the Recent Presentation tab on the Michigan Economy Blog and click on the February 28 U.S. and Michigan Economic Update.

How Tight is Michigan’s Labor Market?

By Martin Lavelle

Michigan’s labor market continues to recover from the Great Recession that ran from December 2007 through June 2009 and its own recession that started four years prior to that. Michigan’s unemployment rate peaked at 14.9% in June 2009, coinciding with the end of the Great Recession. Since that time, Michigan’s unemployment rate has dropped steadily, reaching 4.5% in August 2016. The last time Michigan’s unemployment rate was this low was in January 2001, just before the much shorter and milder 2001 recession. (1)

While Michigan’s current labor market expansion isn’t the longest in its history, (2) the fact that the state’s unemployment rate is now lower than that of the nation makes one wonder how much longer it can last. The superior performance of Michigan’s Southeast and Western Michigan Purchasing Managers indexes relative to the U.S. measures and recent indications that auto sales may have plateaued also imply that Michigan’s labor market expansion may be near a turning point. This blog examines some of Michigan’s labor market indicators to assess whether Michigan’s labor market is at or near “full employment.”

Chart: Unemployment Rates, Annual Averages: U.S., Michigan
Analysis
1011-chart-1
Source: Author’s calculations using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The chart above shows the annual averages of the U.S. and Michigan unemployment rates, respectively. Since 1976, Michigan’s unemployment rate has generally been higher than that of the U.S., especially during the Great Recession and the severe 1981–82 recession. The two instances in which Michigan’s unemployment rate fell below that of the U.S. came during the mid to late 1990s and in recent months. The fluctuation in Michigan’s unemployment rate helps to show the cyclical nature of the state’s economy, driven by the manufacturing sector, specifically the automotive industry. The lows in Michigan’s unemployment rate came during boom times for the automotive industry and the highs came during rough times. Light vehicle sales volumes hit all-time highs last year and are just below those levels year-to-date in 2016. The majority of auto analysts feel that light vehicle sales will continue to slightly fall off of their 2015 highs in the next couple of years. With the automotive industry having peaked, does that mean Michigan’s labor market has peaked as well?

Historically, another sign of a tightening labor market are increasing wages and salaries. The chart below plots the unemployment rate versus workers’ total wage and salary income in the state.

Chart: Annual Wage & Salary Growth vs. Annual Average Unemployment Rate: Michigan
1011-chart-2
Sources: Author’s calculations using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Over the past 40 years, changes in wage and salary income have led changes in the unemployment rate. Michigan’s unemployment rate reached its previous low in 2000, a few years after the rate of growth in wage and salary income peaked. Wage and salary income growth in Michigan bottomed out in 2008, the year before Michigan’s unemployment rate peaked. As Michigan’s unemployment rate decreased after the Great Recession, wage and salary income consistently increased, accelerating in the last two years following some slowing in 2012–13. The pace of wage and salary growth edged higher in 2015 versus 2014, signaling further tightening in Michigan’s labor market. Despite the increase in wages and salaries, however, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that per capita income in Michigan remains about 12% below the national average. Since 1980, per capita income in Michigan has typically been lower than in the U.S. as a whole.

When looking at wage pressures by sector, the story becomes more muddled. The chart below examines the year-over-year percentage change in wage pressures in select employment sectors in Michigan.

Chart: Average Hourly Earnings of Michigan Production Employees by Employment Sector, Year/Year Percentage Change, Not Seasonally Adjusted
1011-chart-3
Source: Author’s calculations using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Michigan’s manufacturing sector, especially the automotive sector, led the state into the recovery it currently enjoys. However, after increasing in 2010, wages started to fall during 2011 and into 2012 as the new labor contract with the United Auto Workers (UAW) that created a lower, 2nd tier of wage ranges took effect. (3) After rebounding in 2013–15, wages are lower thus far in 2016 than in 2015, possibly because of the 2015 UAW contract that created a lower starting point for entry-level full-time workers. (4) Plateauing production volumes as light vehicle sales level off may also be a reason for lower wages in 2016.

Some sectors do support the full employment argument with their accelerations in recent months. Since the latter half of 2015, wages have moved higher in the construction and professional and business sectors, respectively. Labor shortages in building construction and within the engineering and information technology fields of the professional and business services sector have helped to create conditions for higher, more competitive wages. Wage increases have persisted in the retail trade sector since 2013. Competitive pressures from McDonalds and Walmart, as well as legislatively mandated increases in Michigan’s minimum wage, have contributed to higher wages in the retail sector. (5)

When a labor market tightens, it also means workers are increasingly hard to find. One unique characteristic of the current labor market recovery is the elevated level of those working part-time for economic reasons or involuntary part-time workers. The chart below shows what percentage of the labor force is comprised of involuntary part-time workers.

Chart: Part-Time Employment as a Percentage of Labor Force, 4-quarter moving average: U.S., Michigan
1011-chart-4
Sources: Author’s calculations using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As labor markets expand, the percentage of the labor force that is working part-time falls. In Michigan and the U.S., the percentage of the labor force that is working part-time continues to be higher than during the previous labor market expansion. Interestingly, the difference between the part-time segments of the labor force in Michigan and the U.S. has shrunk after widening in the months leading up to and the year after the conclusion of the Great Recession. Another interesting point is that the gap between Michigan’s current percentage of the labor force that is working part-time and the percentage working part-time in the 2000s is narrower relative to the U.S. This could mean one of two things. One possibility is part-time workers in Michigan are finding increasing success in gaining full-time employment. An alternative possibility is part-time employment was elevated during the 2000s and Michigan’s one-state recession. Therefore, part-time employment as a percentage of the labor force would have been expected to fall since the mid-2000s.

In a tightening labor market, those who found themselves unemployed for a long period of time should find their way back into the workforce. The chart below looks at the percentage of the labor force that was unemployed longer than 15 weeks.

Chart: Unemployed Civilians for longer than 15 weeks as a Percentage of Labor Force, 4-quarter moving average: U.S., Michigan
1011-chart-5
Sources: Author’s calculations using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Mirroring the previous chart, Michigan had a greater percentage of its labor force unemployed for more than 15 weeks than the U.S., most likely a result of Michigan’s recession in the previous decade. After peaking in the 2nd quarter of 2010, the percentage of Michigan’s labor force unemployed for more than 15 weeks fell and now equals that of the U.S. Are more previously long-term unemployed workers finding work or are they dropping out of the labor force altogether? Looking at the next chart, which shows the labor force participation rates of the U.S. and Michigan, respectively, we see that Michigan has seen a higher net increase off its lows than the U.S.

Chart: Labor Force Participation Rates: U.S., Michigan
1011-chart-6
Source: Haver Analytics/Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Finally, what about discouraged workers? If a labor market is tightening, the number of discouraged workers should be decreasing. The chart below shows discouraged workers as a percentage of the labor force in the U.S. and Michigan, respectively.

Chart: Discouraged Workers as a Percentage of Labor Force, 4-quarter moving average: U.S., Michigan
1011-chart-7
Source: Author’s calculations using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Again, the same dynamics are in play from 2003 through the end of the Great Recession, with Michigan’s labor market relatively worse off because of its one-state recession. As shown in the previous chart, the gap between Michigan and the U.S. converged and is now all but eliminated. The current percentage of Michigan’s labor force that consists of discouraged workers equals that seen during the mid-2000s, whereas the U.S. hasn’t reached mid-2000s levels yet.

Conclusion
A strong argument can be made that Michigan’s labor market is at full employment. The unemployment rate is currently below that of the U.S. and nearing historical lows. Also, wage and salary growth is at its highest in almost 20 years, labor force participation is off its post-recession lows, and data focused on the marginally attached to the labor force in different ways indicate those numbers are near or at trend. Some anecdotal reports support the argument as well. Multiple firms have instituted significant wage and salary increases in order to keep their most talented employees, while others are giving prospective employees a second look after rejecting their original job inquiry. Finally, with the auto industry operating at peak production levels and historically high sales levels and the state still significantly dependent on the auto industry, Michigan’s robust labor demand growth may be coming to an end.

Footnotes
(1) We are addressing labor market tightness here, not growth rates, not restoration of past levels of labor force size. Out-sized outmigration of working age population in response to the state’s prolonged downturn in the last decade is being held in the background.
(2) Based on BLS data going back to 1976.
(3) See https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/others/region/midwest-economy/dziczek-dabe-january-2012-pdf.pdf.
(4) See http://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/chrysler/2015/10/22/done-deal-uaw-confirms-ratification-fca-contract/74380230/.
(5) See http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2015/12/michigan_minimum_wage_to_incre.html.

Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed

written by: Paul Traub

On Thursday, May 12, 2016, members of the Detroit Association for Business Economics (DABE) attended a presentation entitled “Agriculture and the Economy: A View from the Chicago Fed” by David Oppedahl, senior business economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Oppedahl highlighted key trends in agriculture and their relationship to the broader economy. Farming and manufacturing of food and bioproducts comprise around 4% of the Seventh District’s economic activity in 2013. And this share has been growing in the past decade.

However, over the past century, agriculture has seen dramatic declines in terms of the number of farms and their workers. These trends have been mirrored more recently in the loss of manufacturing jobs. These changes have been difficult for the Midwest, which has a higher than average concentration in these sectors. Still, there also have been some economic advantages to the region as a result of booming productivity. For instance, corn and soybean yields per acre have about doubled in the past half century.

Productivity improvements have generated more than a doubling of agricultural output (given similar level inputs) since around 1950, meaning U.S. consumers have had to spend less and less on food—from 28% of spending in 1950 to 13% in 2015. At the same time, however, spending on health care has been rising, such that the total consumption of food and health care has remained fairly steady at roughly one-third of consumer spending. An argument can be made that as eating habits became less healthy in the second half of the twentieth century, there was a substitution into spending more on health care than food. So, today’s efforts to promote healthier eating in the U.S. and to grow farm income from local and organic foods in essence aim to turn back the clock on personal consumption patterns.

Another key aspect of agriculture is the role of exports as a vital boost to the income of U.S. producers. In 2015, 13% of the District states’ exports were of food and agricultural products (versus 8.5% for the nation). Until 2014, U.S. agricultural exports had been growing rapidly, in large part due to the expansion of markets in Asia. But in 2015 there was a decline in agricultural exports as the strength of the U.S. dollar and slower economic growth abroad contributed to a narrowing of the nation’s trade surplus in agricultural trade.

Not only has the slowdown in exports affected the profitability of agriculture, but there also has been a compression of profit margins as many prices for agricultural products have fallen more than input costs in the last two years. The USDA projects that net farm income for the sector will fall for a second consecutive year in 2016. This downturn has hit the Midwest hard, as seen in lower farmland values and cash rental rates (see latest issue of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s quarterly AgLetter). On November 29, 2016, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will hold a conference to examine the agricultural downturn in the Midwest and discuss future directions for farming. Additional information about the conference will be released in the coming months on chicagofed.org.

To view Oppedahl’s slides from his Detroit presentation, please click here.

Are Businesses Returning to Detroit?

by Martin Lavelle, business economist

Introduction

Detroit’s population fell by almost 50% from its peak of 1.85 million in 1950 (1) to around 950,000 in 2000. Since 2000 (2), Detroit’s population has declined at a faster rate. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that Detroit’s population stood at 680,250 as of 2014 (3). As Detroit’s population migrated elsewhere, so did many of its businesses. How many businesses have left the Motor City since around the turn of the twenty-first century? And are new businesses replacing them in the aftermath of the Great Recession (which ended in mid-2009)?

In this blog entry, I will address these questions by using the County Business Patterns (CBP) data series from the U.S. Census Bureau. The CBP data series provide the number of business establishments (4) by county and zip code. The business establishments reported in the data are sorted by employment size classes. In addition, CBP data sets provide employment and payroll data. CBP data are collected on an annual basis, but with a two-year lag. Here I will analyze business patterns by geography and industry among Detroit zip codes (and elsewhere) between 1998 and 2013.

Analysis

Figure 1 shows a map of Detroit by zip code. The zip codes shown below were used to analyze the change in the number of business establishments in Detroit over the period 1998–2013 (5).

2016 0208 figure 1

Figure 1. Map of Detroit zip codes
Source: Lowell Boileau, available at http://www.atdetroit.net/forum/messages/107211/106465.jpg.

Table 1. Percent change in number of Detroit business establishments, by zip code, 1998–2013
2016 0208 table 1

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns.

For each Detroit zip code area listed in table 1, I include the prominent neighborhoods and/or landmarks found within it.

Overall, the number of Detroit business establishments decreased 22.3% over the period 1998–2013, according to my calculations using CBP data. As of 2013, the city of Detroit was home to 8,817 business establishments. Approximately one-eighth of these establishments can be found in Downtown Detroit—which saw a similar share of its businesses depart as the city as a whole did over the sample period. Zip code areas that fared relatively better than the city in terms of business retention between 1998 and 2013 contain the Midtown/New Center area along Woodward Avenue, Eastern Market, some areas along East Jefferson Avenue parallel to the Detroit River, and southwest Detroit (including Corktown). These centers of commercial activity are now leading Detroit’s turnaround. Zip code areas that saw a larger percentage of their businesses leave relative to what the city as a whole experienced contain some of Detroit’s struggling neighborhoods—which include East English Village adjacent to Harper Woods and the Grosse Pointes, as well as areas near and around the old Packard plant in Detroit’s eastern industrial corridor (6).

Anyone familiar with Detroit’s narrative will likely be able to give several reasons why its business activity has declined over the past few decades. Besides the outward migration of the residential population, the downsizing and suburbanization of the local manufacturing industry, the deterioration of the city’s talent base as a result of the struggles of the Detroit Public Schools (DPS), government corruption, and the worsening condition of the city’s infrastructure are just some of the contributors to Detroit’s downward trend in business activity.

Given the narrative about Detroit, it is natural to wonder how its recent business losses compare with those of its surrounding areas. Table 2 shows the change in the number of establishments by selected areas in 1998 versus 2013. The national numbers are also given to provide another basis of comparison.

Table 2. Number of business establishments, 1998 versus 2013, and percent change in the number of business establishments, 1998–2013, by selected areas

2016 0208 table 2

Note: MSA stands for metropolitan statistical area; for further details on the Detroit MSA, see http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/metro-city/0312msa.txt.
Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns.

Table 2 shows that despite the 2001 and 2007–09 recessions, the number of business establishments in the nation as a whole increased over the period 1998–2013. However, the number of business establishments declined throughout most of Michigan during this time. Wayne County (including Detroit) and the Detroit metropolitan statistical area (MSA)—encompassing Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne counties—experienced less severe business losses than the city of Detroit. Nearby Washtenaw County, whose county seat is Ann Arbor (7), still saw a slight drop in the number of business establishments over the sample period, but fared much better relative to the city of Detroit.

When examining industry business patterns in the city of Detroit, it is not surprising to find that in percentage terms, manufacturing experienced the greatest loss of businesses over the period 1998–2013. Table 3 shows the change in the number of business establishments by industry during the sample period.

Table 3. Number of business establishments, 1998 versus 2013, and percent change in the number of business establishments, 1998–2013, in the city of Detroit, by industry

2016 0208 table 3

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns.

One may be somewhat surprised by which subsectors of manufacturing experienced the greatest losses of business establishments (not shown). When analyzing the business pattern data by NAICS (8) code, I found that transportation equipment manufacturing—which includes motor vehicle and parts manufacturing—experienced a sizable drop in the number of establishments (41.5%); but this decline wasn’t the largest one. The manufacturing subsector that experienced the largest decline in establishments in percentage terms was printing and related support activities (–75.3%), followed by machinery manufacturing (–69.9%) (9). When just looking at the raw numbers of business losses among the manufacturing subsectors, I found that fabricated metal product manufacturing experienced the greatest losses: this subsector lost 86 establishments from 1998 through 2013 (almost a 50% contraction). Of the 26 zip codes I analyzed, 17 of them saw greater-than-50-percent declines in the number of manufacturing establishments.

Conclusion

During the 1998–2013 period, the city of Detroit lost business establishments every year. Detroit lost a higher percentage of establishments than its surrounding areas, the state of Michigan, and the United States. The most significant sectorial losses of businesses were from the goods-based side of the economy—most notably, from manufacturing. While the most severe manufacturing losses weren’t from direct transportation equipment manufacturing, they were in complementary industries, such as fabricated metal manufacturing, machinery manufacturing, and printing activities. Geographically speaking, establishments close to Detroit’s border with the Grosse Pointes and those around the former Packard automobile assembly plant shut down in greater proportions than those in other parts of the city.

Because the most recent data available are 2013 data, I am unable to provide any definitive insight into any possible changes in the trend of establishments leaving Detroit since the city exited bankruptcy in late 2014. By many anecdotal accounts, numerous new establishments have settled in the Downtown, Midtown, Corktown, and other select neighborhoods where the most significant public and private investment has occurred of late. As we receive more and newer data, it will be interesting to see whether new business establishments are sprouting up elsewhere in Detroit. Will business (and public) investment in Detroit remain concentrated in its high-activity areas or begin to noticeably branch out to the city’s relatively less active neighborhoods?

(1) See http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/08/17/us/detroit-decline.html
(2) See http://censusviewer.com/city/MI/Detroit
(3) See http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2015/05/21/census-estimates-michigan/27661485/
(4) See https://ask.census.gov/faq.php?id=5000&faqId=487 for what is considered a business establishment versus a business firm. In this blog entry, businesses refer to business establishments.
(5)Please note, however, that the 48203 zip code area also includes the city of Highland Park and the 48212 zip code area also includes the city of Hamtramck. The 48239 zip code area lies predominantly outside the city of Detroit, so it wasn’t included in the analysis.
(6) See http://archive.freep.com/interactive/article/20121202/NEWS01/120823062/The-Packard-Plant-Then-now-interactive-comparison-photos.
(7) See http://www.annarborusa.org/live-here/facts-rankings
(8) NAICS stands for North American Industry Classification System. For more details, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/ and http://www.bls.gov/bls/naics.htm.
(9) I only considered manufacturing subsectors with more than 50 establishments in 1998.

Recap of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s 29th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium

By Martin Lavelle

On December 4, 2015, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago hosted its 29th annual Economic Outlook Symposium (EOS). The EOS allows economists, business leaders, financial analysts, and other experts to gather and share their respective views on the U.S. economy and individual sectors especially important to the Midwest economy. Also, EOS participants are given the chance to submit their respective projections for the year ahead. These projections are subsequently used to come up with a consensus (median) forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP) and related items.
This blog entry is a summary of what was presented at the latest EOS. For a more in-depth look into what was presented, please click here to read the Chicago Fed Letter for the event. Most of the presentations that were delivered during the EOS can be found here.

• 2015 forecast review: Real GDP growth in 2015 was slightly weaker than expected in the consensus outlook from the previous EOS held in December 2014. Growth in real personal consumption expenditures was slightly higher than anticipated, partly because of stronger than expected growth in light vehicle sales. However, real business fixed investment grew at a significantly slower rate than predicted. New home construction just missed forecasted activity levels. The unemployment rate was lower than originally projected, while inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) came in well below the predicted rate.

• Outlook for consumer spending: According to Scott Brown (Raymond James & Associates), consumer spending is forecasted to slightly decelerate in 2016 in part because of headwinds from rising energy prices (he expected oil prices to average around $50 per barrel by year-end). The pace of job growth has been strong, but is expected to moderate this year.

• Outlook for financial services: Brown also noted that credit conditions are fairly tight, but they should ease. The (then-anticipated) interest rate hike in December by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)—the Federal Reserve’s monetary policymaking arm—shouldn’t dampen lending for a while, Brown said.

• Auto industry outlook: According to Yen Chen (Center for Automotive Research), U.S. light vehicle sales and production are expected to peak in 2018 (at around 18.6 million units and 12.2 million units, respectively) before falling slightly. Auto loan debt is expected to surpass student loan debt as the highest form of household debt, excluding mortgage and home equity debt, over the coming years. Meanwhile, Mexican light vehicle production capacity is expected to increase by over 2 million units in the next seven years largely because of lower labor costs (thereby reducing the U.S. share of North American production).

• Steel industry outlook: Robert DiCianni (ArcelorMittal USA) indicated that U.S. steel consumption is projected to modestly increase in 2016, based on his analysis of several steel-intensive sectors of the economy. For instance, the pace of growth in residential construction is expected to accelerate, while year-over-year growth in nonresidential construction is anticipated to level off. Moreover, both U.S. auto sales and North American auto production in 2016 should be similar to their respective levels in 2015. Global steel consumption is expected to increase slightly in 2016 after decreasing last year. The slowdown in Chinese steel consumption has been a major factor in the decelerating rate of global steel consumption in the past few years.

• Heavy machinery outlook: Glenn Zetek (Komatsu America Corp.) stated that U.S. demand for earth-moving equipment is at healthy levels, though demand has slowed significantly in states where energy production had been intense over the past few years. Equipment demand for single-family residential and transportation projects is expected to increase in 2016. But heavy machinery demand for nonresidential projects should moderate this year; the prospects for equipment demand to complete such projects look more promising over the next couple of years, as nonresidential fixed investment is expected to move up moderately and equipment usage is near its mid-2000s peak. Equipment usage for mining, energy, and rental needs are predicted to decrease.

• State and local government debt outlook: According to John Mousseau (Cumberland Advisors), municipal bond yields for the highest-rated securities with maturities greater than ten years are higher than comparable U.S. Treasury bonds—the opposite of what’s normal. Even with Detroit’s bankruptcy and other cities’ and states’ latest financial struggles, municipal bond quality generally remains higher than corporate bond quality. Interest rate increases won’t be terrible for issuers of municipal bonds because historically, municipal bond yield increases failed to match the size of federal funds rate increases.

Conclusion: 2016 economic outlook

According to the latest EOS consensus outlook, U.S. real GDP growth in 2016 is expected to increase slightly above its historical trend. Inventory levels are expected to rise at a slower pace. Residential investment is projected to rise at a strong pace, with slow and steady improvement predicted in new home construction. Growth in business fixed investment should continue at a decent pace, with moderate growth anticipated in industrial output. The dollar is estimated to slightly appreciate versus major currencies, which should increase the U.S. trade deficit to levels not seen in the past decade. Forecasters expect interest rates to rise, but remain at relatively historical lows. The unemployment rate is predicted to edge slightly below current levels. Inflation is expected to move up (closer to the FOMC’s inflation target) as oil prices strengthen slightly.

Michigan’s contribution to the Midwest economy remains positive

By Paul Traub

According to the September Midwest Economy Index (MEI), the pace of economic growth in the five Seventh District states (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin) as a whole remained below its long-run average. The MEI remained unchanged in September at -0.15, after declining the previous eight months. In addition, at +0.04, Michigan’s contribution to the MEI in September fell to its lowest level since October 2014. According to the index, the strongest contributor to the MEI from Michigan in September was its manufacturing sector followed by its service sector (0.01) and consumer sector (0.01). The contribution its construction sector was slightly negative (-0.03).

The Midwest economy was growing more slowly relative to the national economy in September. The relative Midwest Economy Index fell to –0.29 in September, which was its lowest level since June 2010. (A zero value for the relative MEI indicates that the Midwest economy is growing at a rate consistent with the growth rate of the national economy; positive values indicate above-average relative growth; and negative values indicate below-average relative growth.) Only the consumer sector managed to make a positive contribution to the relative MEI in September. The largest negative swing was in the contribution from the manufacturing sector—which went from a positive at 0.04 in August to –0.05 in September. At +0.02, Michigan’s contribution to the relative MEI remained positive in September almost entirely because of its contribution from manufacturing. Even after falling for three consecutive months, Michigan’s year-to-date average monthly contribution to the relative MEI (of +0.19) remained well above that for 2014. Michigan is the only state in the Seventh District that has positively contributed to the relative index throughout 2015.

Income in Michigan still significantly lags the national average, but is slowly catching up. Real per capita income in Michigan continued to improve—to $38,454 in 2015:Q2, up 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. The nation’s real per capita income was $43,303 in 2015:Q2, up 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. Michigan has seen its real per capita income growth exceed that of the nation for the past six consecutive quarters. Since 2010:Q1, real per capita income growth averaged about 2.0% for Michigan, compared with 1.6% for the nation.

U.S. light vehicle (car and light truck) sales remain a bright spot for Michigan manufacturing. Light vehicle sales for September 2015 were reported to be 18.1 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This was the best month for light vehicle sales since July 2005, when the U.S. light vehicle sales at a SAAR reached 20.6 million units. Year-to-date sales have averaged 17.2 million units on a SAAR basis. According to the forecast from the October 2015 Blue Chip Economic Indicators, light vehicle sales for the United States are expected to reach 17.2 million in 2015, with an additional increase in 2016 to 17.3 million units. According to data from Ward’s Automotive, Michigan’s light vehicle production for 2015 is expected to reach slightly over 2.4 million units. This would be an increase of 8.5% from 2014.

Michigan’s housing market has recently experienced some modest improvement. Although construction of privately owned homes in Michigan was negatively affected by the past two winters, housing permits and starts have continued to modestly improve since bottoming out in 2009. Housing starts in the state through August averaged 1,454 per month in 2015—a 16.5% improvement compared to the same period last year. However, even with that improvement, privately owned housing starts are still only about 40.0% of what they were at their peak in 2005. Home prices in Michigan were reported to be up 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in 2015:Q2. While home prices for the state are above their 2000 level, they are still well below their 2005 peak. In addition, home prices for the Detroit metropolitan area, which was harder hit than the state as a whole, were up 3.9% in 2015:Q2 compared with a year ago. While some areas within the Detroit metro region have seen significant improvements in home prices, prices for residential real estate in the region remain 22.1% below their 2006:Q1 peak.

Michigan’s unemployment rate is now lower than the nation’s: Michigan’s unemployment rate of 5.0% in September compares somewhat favorably to the national unemployment rate of 5.1%. Michigan’s unemployment rate declined from 5.1% in August, while the labor force participation rate of 60.0% was unchanged for the third consecutive month. While September’s unemployment rate reflects an increase in civilian employment of 54,583 for January through September of this year, it was also aided by a declining labor force (down by 16,172 participants) over the same period.

Payroll employment growth for Michigan has slowed in recent months. Nonfarm payroll employment, which is based on a survey of businesses, fell by 9,800 jobs in September following an increase of 3,700 in August. So far in 2015 (through September), nonfarm employment has increased by 53,900, which is equal to an average monthly job growth of about 6,000 per month. Michigan has added 443,000 jobs since its recessionary trough in March 2010, but total nonfarm employment is still about 400,000 jobs below its peak, which was reached in 2000. Michigan’s dependence on manufacturing remains strong, as approximately 21.2% of the Michigan’s gross state product and 14.1% of its payroll jobs are directly associated with the manufacturing sector. Sectors that experienced losses in jobs this year include information, mining and logging, and government. The government subsector that experienced the biggest decline in employment was local government: 4,200 local government jobs were lost in Michigan this year. However, these losses were offset by gains of 200 federal and 3,100 state government jobs.

Michigan GSP

Based on the first nine months of available data, Michigan’s economy is estimated to be growing at 2.2% on an annualized basis. This estimate is down slightly from the Q2 forecast mostly because of slower employment growth in recent months. However, total nonfarm employment is still on a path to grow by 2.0% in 2015 if the current monthly average pace of employment growth continues. Because Michigan’s economy remains highly dependent on the manufacturing sector and because almost half of Michigan’s manufacturing output is related to the auto industry, the projected (continued) growth in Michigan’s auto production for 2015 should help the economy sustain its positive momentum through the rest of this year and into 2016.

For a detailed copy of the report, please click Michigan Economic Update – 2015 Q3.